Greuther Fürth II 1–2 Türkgücü-Ataspor

Greuther Fürth II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Türkgücü-Ataspor

11/26/2022

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 23Sportanlage Burgfarrnbach Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Greuther Fürth II40%

×Draw25%

Türkgücü-Ataspor36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greuther Fürth IIExpected goals in this matchTürkgücü-Ataspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.42

Greuther Fürth II

1.51

Türkgücü-Ataspor

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 47 away

1.42

creates per match

1.40

1.45

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Greuther Fürth II

1.42

Türkgücü-Ataspor

1.40

allows per match

Greuther Fürth II

1.45

Türkgücü-Ataspor

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greuther Fürth II+0.00on par

Türkgücü-Ataspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth II ↓

Türkgücü-Ataspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth II or draw

64%

Greuther Fürth II or Türkgücü-Ataspor

75%

Draw or Türkgücü-Ataspor

60%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth II wins by 2+

19%

Türkgücü-Ataspor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth II 1+ goals

78%

Greuther Fürth II 2+ goals

44%

Greuther Fürth II 3+ goals

19%

Türkgücü-Ataspor 1+ goals

76%

Türkgücü-Ataspor 2+ goals

41%

Türkgücü-Ataspor 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth II (draw refunded)

53%

Türkgücü-Ataspor (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

Türkgücü-Ataspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth II attack 1.42 + Türkgücü-Ataspor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.51

Türkgücü-Ataspor attack 1.40 + Greuther Fürth II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Greuther Fürth II scores more

40%

level

25%

Türkgücü-Ataspor scores more

36%

Greuther Fürth II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Greuther Fürth II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff