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Türkgücü-Ataspor vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Türkgücü-Ataspor
Türkgücü-Ataspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
9/28/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 12Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Türkgücü-Ataspor29%
×Draw25%
FC Wurzburger Kickers46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.21
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.58

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 31% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 54 away

creates per match

Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.65
FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.11

allows per match

Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.06
FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.76

finishing

Türkgücü-Ataspor+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkgücü-Ataspor ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Türkgücü-Ataspor or draw
54%
Türkgücü-Ataspor or FC Wurzburger Kickers
75%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
71%

Winning margin

Türkgücü-Ataspor wins by 2+
12%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Türkgücü-Ataspor 1+ goals
70%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 2+ goals
34%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 3+ goals
12%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
79%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
47%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Türkgücü-Ataspor (draw refunded)
39%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkgücü-Ataspor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.06 · 48 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkgücü-Ataspor attack 1.65 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.21

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.11 + Türkgücü-Ataspor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Türkgücü-Ataspor scores more
29%
level
25%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
46%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkgücü-Ataspor 0 – 1 FC Wurzburger Kickers

FC Wurzburger Kickers beat Türkgücü-Ataspor 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 28, 2023.

The match was played at Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße in München.