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FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Türkgücü-Ataspor — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Türkgücü-Ataspor
Türkgücü-Ataspor
4/13/2024Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 29AKON ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers62%
×Draw20%
Türkgücü-Ataspor18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.18
Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.08

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 102% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 47 away

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.76
Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.40

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.76
Türkgücü-Ataspor
1.60

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par
Türkgücü-Ataspor+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

Türkgücü-Ataspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw
82%
FC Wurzburger Kickers or Türkgücü-Ataspor
80%
Draw or Türkgücü-Ataspor
38%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
39%
Türkgücü-Ataspor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
89%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
64%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
37%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 1+ goals
66%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 2+ goals
29%
Türkgücü-Ataspor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
78%
Türkgücü-Ataspor (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

Türkgücü-Ataspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.76 + Türkgücü-Ataspor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.18

Türkgücü-Ataspor attack 1.40 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
62%
level
20%
Türkgücü-Ataspor scores more
18%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Wurzburger Kickers 4 – 0 Türkgücü-Ataspor

FC Wurzburger Kickers beat Türkgücü-Ataspor 4-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at AKON ARENA in Würzburg.