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Turbina Cërrik vs Erzeni Shijak — 1st Division 2019

Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
2/12/20221st Division1st Division · Round 19Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Turbina Cërrik44%
×Draw28%
Erzeni Shijak29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turbina Cërrik
1.33
Erzeni Shijak
1.03

Turbina Cërrik creates 29% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 55 away

creates per match

Turbina Cërrik
1.38
Erzeni Shijak
1.15

allows per match

Turbina Cërrik
0.92
Erzeni Shijak
1.29

finishing

Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par
Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turbina Cërrik ↓

Erzeni Shijak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Turbina Cërrik or draw
71%
Turbina Cërrik or Erzeni Shijak
72%
Draw or Erzeni Shijak
56%

Winning margin

Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
20%
Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
74%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
38%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
15%
Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
64%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
28%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
60%
Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turbina Cërrik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turbina Cërrik attack 1.38 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.15 + Turbina Cërrik defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Turbina Cërrik scores more
44%
level
28%
Erzeni Shijak scores more
29%

Turbina Cërrik at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Turbina Cërrik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Turbina Cërrik 0–2 Erzeni Shijak

Erzeni Shijak beat Turbina Cërrik 2-0 in 1st Division on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu in Cërrik.