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Erzeni Shijak vs Turbina Cërrik — 1st Division 2019

Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
10/2/20211st Division1st Division · Round 4Stadiumi Tofik Jashari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Erzeni Shijak51%
×Draw26%
Turbina Cërrik23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzeni Shijak
1.55
Turbina Cërrik
0.95

Erzeni Shijak creates 63% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 52 away

creates per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.19
Turbina Cërrik
0.83

allows per match

Erzeni Shijak
1.06
Turbina Cërrik
1.92

finishing

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par
Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzeni Shijak ↓

Turbina Cërrik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Erzeni Shijak or draw
77%
Erzeni Shijak or Turbina Cërrik
74%
Draw or Turbina Cërrik
49%

Winning margin

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
27%
Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
79%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
46%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
20%
Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
61%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
25%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
69%
Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzeni Shijak at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

Turbina Cërrik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.19 + Turbina Cërrik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.55

Turbina Cërrik attack 0.83 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Erzeni Shijak scores more
51%
level
26%
Turbina Cërrik scores more
23%

Erzeni Shijak at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Erzeni Shijak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Erzeni Shijak 3–1 Turbina Cërrik

Erzeni Shijak beat Turbina Cërrik 3-1 in 1st Division on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Tofik Jashari in Shijak.