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Turbina Cërrik vs Elbasani — 1st Division 2019

Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Elbasani
Elbasani
7/19/20201st Division1st Division · Relegation Round - 8Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Turbina Cërrik59%
×Draw23%
Elbasani19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turbina Cërrik
1.83
Elbasani
0.92

Turbina Cërrik creates 99% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 24 away

creates per match

Turbina Cërrik
1.38
Elbasani
0.92

allows per match

Turbina Cërrik
0.92
Elbasani
2.29

finishing

Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par
Elbasani+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turbina Cërrik ↓

Elbasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Turbina Cërrik or draw
81%
Turbina Cërrik or Elbasani
77%
Draw or Elbasani
41%

Winning margin

Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
34%
Elbasani wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
84%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
54%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
28%
Elbasani 1+ goals
60%
Elbasani 2+ goals
23%
Elbasani 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
76%
Elbasani (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turbina Cërrik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

Elbasani away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.29 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turbina Cërrik attack 1.38 + Elbasani defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.83

Elbasani attack 0.92 + Turbina Cërrik defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Turbina Cërrik scores more
59%
level
23%
Elbasani scores more
19%

Turbina Cërrik at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Turbina Cërrik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turbina Cërrik vs Elbasani

Turbina Cërrik beat Elbasani 3-2 in 1st Division on July 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu in Cërrik.