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Elbasani vs Turbina Cërrik — 1st Division 2019

Elbasani
Elbasani
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
3/21/20211st Division1st Division · Round 16Stadiumi Tomori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Elbasani49%
×Draw24%
Turbina Cërrik27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elbasani
1.65
Turbina Cërrik
1.15

Elbasani creates 43% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 52 away

creates per match

Elbasani
1.38
Turbina Cërrik
0.83

allows per match

Elbasani
1.46
Turbina Cërrik
1.92

finishing

Elbasani+0.00on par
Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elbasani ↓

Turbina Cërrik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Elbasani or draw
73%
Elbasani or Turbina Cërrik
76%
Draw or Turbina Cërrik
51%

Winning margin

Elbasani wins by 2+
26%
Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Elbasani 1+ goals
81%
Elbasani 2+ goals
49%
Elbasani 3+ goals
23%
Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
68%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
32%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Elbasani (draw refunded)
65%
Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elbasani at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Turbina Cërrik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elbasani attack 1.38 + Turbina Cërrik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.65

Turbina Cërrik attack 0.83 + Elbasani defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Elbasani scores more
49%
level
24%
Turbina Cërrik scores more
27%

Elbasani at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elbasani vs Turbina Cërrik

Elbasani and Turbina Cërrik drew 0-0 in 1st Division on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Tomori in Berat.