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Turbina Cërrik vs Devolli — 1st Division 2019

Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Devolli
Devolli
5/14/20221st Division1st Division · FinalsStadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Turbina Cërrik53%
×Draw25%
Devolli22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turbina Cërrik
1.59
Devolli
0.93

Turbina Cërrik creates 71% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 15 away

creates per match

Turbina Cërrik
1.38
Devolli
0.93

allows per match

Turbina Cërrik
0.92
Devolli
1.80

finishing

Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par
Devolli+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turbina Cërrik ↓

Devolli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Turbina Cërrik or draw
78%
Turbina Cërrik or Devolli
75%
Draw or Devolli
47%

Winning margin

Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
28%
Devolli wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
80%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
47%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
21%
Devolli 1+ goals
61%
Devolli 2+ goals
24%
Devolli 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
71%
Devolli (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turbina Cërrik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

Devolli away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turbina Cërrik attack 1.38 + Devolli defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.59

Devolli attack 0.93 + Turbina Cërrik defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Turbina Cërrik scores more
53%
level
25%
Devolli scores more
22%

Turbina Cërrik at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Turbina Cërrik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Turbina Cërrik vs Devolli

Turbina Cërrik beat Devolli 1-0 in 1st Division on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Niko Dovana in Durrës.