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Devolli vs Turbina Cërrik — 1st Division 2019

Devolli
Devolli
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
2/1/20201st Division1st Division · Round 14Fusha Sportive Bilisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Devolli56%
×Draw22%
Turbina Cërrik22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Devolli
1.90
Turbina Cërrik
1.11

Devolli creates 71% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 52 away

creates per match

Devolli
1.87
Turbina Cërrik
0.83

allows per match

Devolli
1.40
Turbina Cërrik
1.92

finishing

Devolli+0.00on par
Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Devolli ↓

Turbina Cërrik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Devolli or draw
78%
Devolli or Turbina Cërrik
78%
Draw or Turbina Cërrik
44%

Winning margin

Devolli wins by 2+
32%
Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Devolli 1+ goals
85%
Devolli 2+ goals
56%
Devolli 3+ goals
29%
Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
67%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
30%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Devolli (draw refunded)
72%
Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Devolli at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Turbina Cërrik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Devolli attack 1.87 + Turbina Cërrik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.90

Turbina Cërrik attack 0.83 + Devolli defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Devolli scores more
56%
level
22%
Turbina Cërrik scores more
22%

Devolli at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Devolli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Devolli 2–1 Turbina Cërrik

Devolli beat Turbina Cërrik 2-1 in 1st Division on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Bilisht in Bilisht.