Turbina Cërrik 2–4 Besa Kavajë: Result & Stats

Turbina Cërrik

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Besa Kavajë

10/15/2022

1st Division · Round 6Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Turbina Cërrik45%

×Draw27%

Besa Kavajë28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turbina CërrikExpected goals in this matchBesa Kavajë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.06

Turbina Cërrik

1.42

Besa Kavajë

1.06

Turbina Cërrik creates 34% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 100 away

1.38

creates per match

1.20

0.92

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Turbina Cërrik

1.38

Besa Kavajë

1.20

allows per match

Turbina Cërrik

0.92

Besa Kavajë

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par

Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turbina Cërrik ↓

Besa Kavajë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Turbina Cërrik or draw

72%

Turbina Cërrik or Besa Kavajë

73%

Draw or Besa Kavajë

55%

Winning margin

Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+

22%

Besa Kavajë wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals

76%

Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals

41%

Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals

17%

Besa Kavajë 1+ goals

65%

Besa Kavajë 2+ goals

29%

Besa Kavajë 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)

62%

Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turbina Cërrik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turbina Cërrik attack 1.38 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Besa Kavajë attack 1.20 + Turbina Cërrik defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Turbina Cërrik scores more

45%

level

27%

Besa Kavajë scores more

28%

Turbina Cërrik at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Turbina Cërrik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff