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Besa Kavajë vs Turbina Cërrik — 1st Division 2019

Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
9/11/20211st Division1st Division · Round 1Stadiumi Luz i Vogël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Besa Kavajë55%
×Draw24%
Turbina Cërrik20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Kavajë
1.69
Turbina Cërrik
0.92

Besa Kavajë creates 84% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 52 away

creates per match

Besa Kavajë
1.46
Turbina Cërrik
0.83

allows per match

Besa Kavajë
1.01
Turbina Cërrik
1.92

finishing

Besa Kavajë+0.00on par
Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Kavajë ↓

Turbina Cërrik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Besa Kavajë or draw
80%
Besa Kavajë or Turbina Cërrik
76%
Draw or Turbina Cërrik
45%

Winning margin

Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
30%
Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
82%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
50%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
24%
Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
60%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
23%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
73%
Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Kavajë at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.01 · 102 matches

Turbina Cërrik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Kavajë attack 1.46 + Turbina Cërrik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.69

Turbina Cërrik attack 0.83 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Besa Kavajë scores more
55%
level
24%
Turbina Cërrik scores more
20%

Besa Kavajë at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Besa Kavajë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besa Kavajë vs Turbina Cërrik

Besa Kavajë beat Turbina Cërrik 2-1 in 1st Division on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Luz i Vogël in Luz i Vogël.