Turan 1–1 Metalourg: Result & Stats | Super League

Turan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Metalourg

10/5/2023

Super League · Round 21O'zbekiston Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Turan32%

×Draw29%

Metalourg38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuranExpected goals in this matchMetalourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.13

Turan

1.02

Metalourg

1.13

Metalourg creates 11% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 79 away

0.71

creates per match

0.97

1.29

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Turan

0.71

Metalourg

0.97

allows per match

Turan

1.29

Metalourg

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turan+0.00on par

Metalourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turan ↓

Metalourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Turan or draw

62%

Turan or Metalourg

71%

Draw or Metalourg

68%

Winning margin

Turan wins by 2+

12%

Metalourg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Turan 1+ goals

64%

Turan 2+ goals

27%

Turan 3+ goals

8%

Metalourg 1+ goals

68%

Metalourg 2+ goals

31%

Metalourg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Turan (draw refunded)

46%

Metalourg (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turan at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Metalourg away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turan attack 0.71 + Metalourg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.02

Metalourg attack 0.97 + Turan defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Turan scores more

32%

level

29%

Metalourg scores more

38%

Metalourg at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff