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Metalourg vs Turan — Super League 2026

Metalourg
Metalourg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Turan
Turan
7/3/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8Metallurg Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Metalourg51%
×Draw27%
Turan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalourg
1.42
Turan
0.82

Metalourg creates 73% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 13 away

creates per match

Metalourg
0.99
Turan
0.62

allows per match

Metalourg
1.03
Turan
1.85

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par
Turan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

Turan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw
78%
Metalourg or Turan
73%
Draw or Turan
49%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+
25%
Turan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals
76%
Metalourg 2+ goals
41%
Metalourg 3+ goals
17%
Turan 1+ goals
56%
Turan 2+ goals
20%
Turan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)
70%
Turan (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Turan away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 0.99 + Turan defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.42

Turan attack 0.62 + Metalourg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Metalourg scores more
51%
level
27%
Turan scores more
22%

Metalourg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metalourg vs Turan

Metalourg and Turan drew 1-1 in Super League on July 3, 2023.

The match was played at Metallurg Markaziy Stadion in Bekabad.