Turan 2–0 Metalourg: Result & Stats | Super League

Turan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Metalourg

Kim Bo-Yong 58'

M. Muzaffarov 18' (pen)

7/2/2021

Super League · Round 12O'zbekiston Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Turan33%

×Draw31%

Metalourg37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuranExpected goals in this matchMetalourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.05

Turan

0.98

Metalourg

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 83 away

0.69

creates per match

1.02

1.08

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Turan

0.69

Metalourg

1.02

allows per match

Turan

1.08

Metalourg

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turan+0.00on par

Metalourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turan ↓

Metalourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Turan or draw

63%

Turan or Metalourg

69%

Draw or Metalourg

67%

Winning margin

Turan wins by 2+

12%

Metalourg wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Turan 1+ goals

62%

Turan 2+ goals

26%

Turan 3+ goals

8%

Metalourg 1+ goals

65%

Metalourg 2+ goals

28%

Metalourg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Turan (draw refunded)

47%

Metalourg (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turan at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Metalourg away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turan attack 0.69 + Metalourg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.98

Metalourg attack 1.02 + Turan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Turan scores more

33%

level

31%

Metalourg scores more

37%

Metalourg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

M. MuzaffarovPenalty

20'

I. Toshpulatov

46'

A. Abdulkhakov← O. Abduholiqov

58'

Kim Bo-Yong

64'

J. Mekhmonov

64'

Z. Abdullaev

65'

I. Nagaev← D. Narzullaev

73'

I. Nagajev

78'

S. Nurmatov← A. Toshkuziev

84'

D. Umirov← S. Babić

87'

K. Tadjiev

90+3'

A. Lobanov

90+2'

M. Qo'ldoshev← M. Muzaffarov

Turan

Metalourg

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: I. Shkvyrin

46'▲A. Abdulkhakov←▼O. Abduholiqov

84'▲D. Umirov←▼S. Babić

90+2'▲M. Qo'ldoshev←▼M. Muzaffarov

Turan substitutes

AbdulkhakovUmirovQo'ldoshevToshtemirovSokhibovKomilovAbdullayevOkhunjonovKhakimov

Manager: D. Abduraimov

65'▲I. Nagaev←▼D. Narzullaev

78'▲S. Nurmatov←▼A. Toshkuziev

Metalourg substitutes

NagaevNurmatovTursunbaevAnvarovQudratillayevNematjonovErgashev

Match Recap: Turan vs Metalourg

Turan beat Metalourg 2-0 in Super League on July 2, 2021.

Goals: M. Muzaffarov (18' pen), Kim Bo-Yong (58').

The match was played at O'zbekiston Stadioni in Yaypan.

Turan vs Metalourg — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Turan vs Metalourg