Metalourg 1–0 Turan: Result & Stats | Super League

Metalourg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Turan

S. Nurmatov 22'

11/21/2021

Super League · Round 25Metallurg Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Metalourg52%

×Draw27%

Turan21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetalourgExpected goals in this matchTuran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.79

Metalourg

1.41

Turan

0.79

Metalourg creates 78% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 13 away

1.05

creates per match

0.54

1.03

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Metalourg

1.05

Turan

0.54

allows per match

Metalourg

1.03

Turan

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par

Turan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

Turan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw

79%

Metalourg or Turan

73%

Draw or Turan

48%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+

26%

Turan wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals

76%

Metalourg 2+ goals

41%

Metalourg 3+ goals

17%

Turan 1+ goals

55%

Turan 2+ goals

19%

Turan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)

71%

Turan (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Turan away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 1.05 + Turan defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.41

Turan attack 0.54 + Metalourg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Metalourg scores more

52%

level

27%

Turan scores more

21%

Metalourg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

S. Nurmatov

25'

K. Sattarov← K. Tadjiev

42'

M. Isaev

58'

A. Toshkuziev← D. Rakhmatullaev

58'

M. Qudratillayev← S. Nurmatov

79'

D. Ismoilov← Kim Bo-Yong

79'

O. Zokirov← M. Muzaffarov

81'

V. Kosmynin

81'

Z. Abdullaev

82'

B. Davlatov← D. Temirov

83'

S. Abdullajonov

84'

F. Ibrokhimov

Metalourg

Turan

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Nurmatov

Manager: Luisma Hernández

25'▲K. Sattarov←▼K. Tadjiev

58'▲A. Toshkuziev←▼D. Rakhmatullaev

58'▲M. Qudratillayev←▼S. Nurmatov

82'▲B. Davlatov←▼D. Temirov

Metalourg substitutes

SattarovToshkuzievQudratillayevDavlatovAbdulkhakovTursunbaevNagaevAbdumajidovRoziyev

Manager: B. Hakimov

79'▲D. Ismoilov←▼Kim Bo-Yong

79'▲O. Zokirov←▼M. Muzaffarov

Turan substitutes

IsmoilovZokirovHojiakbarovQayumovUmirovKomilovZiyovutdinovAzimovBabić