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Turan vs Kapaz — Premyer Liqa 2019

Turan
Turan
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Kapaz
Kapaz
5/25/2025Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 36Şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Turan51%
×Draw24%
Kapaz24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turan
1.67
Kapaz
1.07

Turan creates 56% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

creates per match

Turan
1.38
Kapaz
0.88

allows per match

Turan
1.27
Kapaz
1.96

finishing

Turan+0.00on par
Kapaz+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turan ↓

Kapaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Turan or draw
76%
Turan or Kapaz
76%
Draw or Kapaz
49%

Winning margin

Turan wins by 2+
28%
Kapaz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Turan 1+ goals
81%
Turan 2+ goals
50%
Turan 3+ goals
23%
Kapaz 1+ goals
66%
Kapaz 2+ goals
29%
Kapaz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Turan (draw refunded)
68%
Kapaz (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turan at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

Kapaz away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.96 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turan attack 1.38 + Kapaz defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.67

Kapaz attack 0.88 + Turan defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Turan scores more
51%
level
24%
Kapaz scores more
24%

Turan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Turan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premyer Liqa: Turan 4–0 Kapaz

Turan beat Kapaz 4-0 in Premyer Liqa on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Şəhər stadionu in Tovuz.