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Kapaz vs Turan — Premyer Liqa 2019

Kapaz
Kapaz
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Turan
Turan
1/19/2025Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 19Şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Kapaz29%
×Draw27%
Turan44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kapaz
1.07
Turan
1.38

Turan creates 29% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 73 away

creates per match

Kapaz
0.99
Turan
1.14

allows per match

Kapaz
1.62
Turan
1.15

finishing

Kapaz+0.00on par
Turan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kapaz ↓

Turan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kapaz or draw
56%
Kapaz or Turan
73%
Draw or Turan
71%

Winning margin

Kapaz wins by 2+
11%
Turan wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kapaz 1+ goals
66%
Kapaz 2+ goals
29%
Kapaz 3+ goals
9%
Turan 1+ goals
75%
Turan 2+ goals
40%
Turan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kapaz (draw refunded)
40%
Turan (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kapaz at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Turan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.15 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kapaz attack 0.99 + Turan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Turan attack 1.14 + Kapaz defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kapaz scores more
29%
level
27%
Turan scores more
44%

Turan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Turan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kapaz vs Turan

Kapaz beat Turan 5-2 in Premyer Liqa on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Şəhər stadionu in Tovuz.