Turan Turkistan 6–1 Jas Qyran: Result & Stats

Turan Turkistan

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Jas Qyran

B. Mukashev 56'

N. Shershnev 50'

V. Lozhkin 47', 38', 15'

R. Nurmugamet 5'

S. Kabirov 53'

7/14/2023

1. Division · Round 15Stadion Namys

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Turan Turkistan69%

×Draw17%

Jas Qyran14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Turan TurkistanExpected goals in this matchJas Qyran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.13

Turan Turkistan

2.63

Jas Qyran

1.13

Turan Turkistan creates 133% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 14 away

2.82

creates per match

1.21

1.05

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Turan Turkistan

2.82

Jas Qyran

1.21

allows per match

Turan Turkistan

1.05

Jas Qyran

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Turan Turkistan+0.00on par

Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turan Turkistan ↓

Jas Qyran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Turan Turkistan or draw

86%

Turan Turkistan or Jas Qyran

83%

Draw or Jas Qyran

31%

Winning margin

Turan Turkistan wins by 2+

47%

Jas Qyran wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Turan Turkistan 1+ goals

93%

Turan Turkistan 2+ goals

73%

Turan Turkistan 3+ goals

48%

Jas Qyran 1+ goals

68%

Jas Qyran 2+ goals

31%

Jas Qyran 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Turan Turkistan (draw refunded)

83%

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turan Turkistan at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turan Turkistan attack 2.82 + Jas Qyran defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.63

Jas Qyran attack 1.21 + Turan Turkistan defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Turan Turkistan scores more

69%

level

17%

Jas Qyran scores more

14%

Turan Turkistan at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Turan Turkistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

15'

38'

47'

50'

53'

S. Kabirov

56'

B. Mukashev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff