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Jas Qyran vs Turan Turkistan — 1. Division 2019

Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Turan Turkistan
Turan Turkistan
A. Seitov 48'
M. Khalmatov 81'
N. Buribayev 80'
10/24/20231. Division1. Division · Round 29Stadion Jas Qyran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Jas Qyran31%
×Draw22%
Turan Turkistan47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jas Qyran
1.58
Turan Turkistan
1.97

Turan Turkistan creates 25% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

creates per match

Jas Qyran
2.36
Turan Turkistan
2.65

allows per match

Jas Qyran
1.29
Turan Turkistan
0.80

finishing

Jas Qyran+0.00on par
Turan Turkistan+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jas Qyran ↓

Turan Turkistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Jas Qyran or draw
53%
Jas Qyran or Turan Turkistan
78%
Draw or Turan Turkistan
69%

Winning margin

Jas Qyran wins by 2+
15%
Turan Turkistan wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Jas Qyran 1+ goals
79%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
47%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
21%
Turan Turkistan 1+ goals
86%
Turan Turkistan 2+ goals
58%
Turan Turkistan 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
40%
Turan Turkistan (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jas Qyran at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Turan Turkistan away — creates 2.65, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jas Qyran attack 2.36 + Turan Turkistan defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.58

Turan Turkistan attack 2.65 + Jas Qyran defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jas Qyran scores more
31%
level
22%
Turan Turkistan scores more
47%

Turan Turkistan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Turan Turkistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
A. Seitov
80'
N. Buribayev
81'
M. Khalmatov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Jas Qyran 1–2 Turan Turkistan

Turan Turkistan beat Jas Qyran 2-1 in 1. Division on October 24, 2023.

Goals: A. Seitov (48'), N. Buribayev (80'), M. Khalmatov (81').

The match was played at Stadion Jas Qyran in Almaty.