Tupynambás 0–0 Nacional AC MG: Result & Stats

Tupynambás

FT

0 – 0

Nacional AC MG

9/4/2021

Mineiro - 2 · Quadrangular Final - 1Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Tupynambás34%

×Draw33%

Nacional AC MG34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TupynambásExpected goals in this matchNacional AC MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

Tupynambás

0.90

Nacional AC MG

0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 37 away

0.72

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Tupynambás

0.72

Nacional AC MG

1.00

allows per match

Tupynambás

0.80

Nacional AC MG

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tupynambás+0.00on par

Nacional AC MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupynambás ↓

Nacional AC MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Tupynambás or draw

66%

Tupynambás or Nacional AC MG

67%

Draw or Nacional AC MG

66%

Winning margin

Tupynambás wins by 2+

12%

Nacional AC MG wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tupynambás 1+ goals

59%

Tupynambás 2+ goals

23%

Tupynambás 3+ goals

6%

Nacional AC MG 1+ goals

59%

Nacional AC MG 2+ goals

23%

Nacional AC MG 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tupynambás (draw refunded)

50%

Nacional AC MG (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupynambás at home — creates 0.72, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Nacional AC MG away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupynambás attack 0.72 + Nacional AC MG defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.90

Nacional AC MG attack 1.00 + Tupynambás defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Tupynambás scores more

34%

level

33%

Nacional AC MG scores more

34%

Tupynambás at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Tupynambás will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff