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Nacional AC MG vs Tupynambás — Mineiro - 2 2020

Nacional AC MG
Nacional AC MG
FT
0 – 0
Tupynambás
Tupynambás
10/2/2021Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Quadrangular Final - 6Estádio Soares de Azevedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Nacional AC MG41%
×Draw29%
Tupynambás30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional AC MG
1.20
Tupynambás
0.98

Nacional AC MG creates 22% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 24 away

creates per match

Nacional AC MG
1.36
Tupynambás
0.96

allows per match

Nacional AC MG
1.00
Tupynambás
1.04

finishing

Nacional AC MG+0.00on par
Tupynambás+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional AC MG ↓

Tupynambás →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nacional AC MG or draw
70%
Nacional AC MG or Tupynambás
71%
Draw or Tupynambás
59%

Winning margin

Nacional AC MG wins by 2+
18%
Tupynambás wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nacional AC MG 1+ goals
70%
Nacional AC MG 2+ goals
34%
Nacional AC MG 3+ goals
12%
Tupynambás 1+ goals
62%
Tupynambás 2+ goals
26%
Tupynambás 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nacional AC MG (draw refunded)
58%
Tupynambás (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional AC MG at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 39 matches

Tupynambás away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional AC MG attack 1.36 + Tupynambás defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Tupynambás attack 0.96 + Nacional AC MG defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nacional AC MG scores more
41%
level
29%
Tupynambás scores more
30%

Nacional AC MG at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nacional AC MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nacional AC MG vs Tupynambás

Nacional AC MG and Tupynambás drew 0-0 in Mineiro - 2 on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Soares de Azevedo in Muriaé, Minas Gerais.