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Tupynambás vs Aparecidense — Serie D 2018

Tupynambás
Tupynambás
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aparecidense
Aparecidense
12/6/2020Serie DSerie D · 16th FinalsEstádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Tupynambás29%
×Draw29%
Aparecidense42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupynambás
0.98
Aparecidense
1.25

Aparecidense creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 38 away

creates per match

Tupynambás
1.00
Aparecidense
1.26

allows per match

Tupynambás
1.25
Aparecidense
0.97

finishing

Tupynambás+0.00on par
Aparecidense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupynambás ↓

Aparecidense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tupynambás or draw
58%
Tupynambás or Aparecidense
71%
Draw or Aparecidense
71%

Winning margin

Tupynambás wins by 2+
11%
Aparecidense wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tupynambás 1+ goals
62%
Tupynambás 2+ goals
26%
Tupynambás 3+ goals
8%
Aparecidense 1+ goals
71%
Aparecidense 2+ goals
36%
Aparecidense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tupynambás (draw refunded)
41%
Aparecidense (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupynambás at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Aparecidense away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupynambás attack 1.00 + Aparecidense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Aparecidense attack 1.26 + Tupynambás defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tupynambás scores more
29%
level
29%
Aparecidense scores more
42%

Aparecidense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aparecidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Tupynambás 1–1 Aparecidense

Tupynambás and Aparecidense drew 1-1 in Serie D on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais.