Aparecidense 4–0 Tupynambás: Result & Stats

Aparecidense

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Tupynambás

12/13/2020

Serie D · 16th FinalsEstádio Annibal Batista de Toledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Aparecidense46%

×Draw24%

Tupynambás30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AparecidenseExpected goals in this matchTupynambás

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.29

Aparecidense

1.65

Tupynambás

1.29

Aparecidense creates 28% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 8 away

1.92

creates per match

1.50

1.08

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Aparecidense

1.92

Tupynambás

1.50

allows per match

Aparecidense

1.08

Tupynambás

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aparecidense+0.00on par

Tupynambás+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aparecidense ↓

Tupynambás →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Aparecidense or draw

70%

Aparecidense or Tupynambás

76%

Draw or Tupynambás

54%

Winning margin

Aparecidense wins by 2+

24%

Tupynambás wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Aparecidense 1+ goals

81%

Aparecidense 2+ goals

49%

Aparecidense 3+ goals

23%

Tupynambás 1+ goals

72%

Tupynambás 2+ goals

37%

Tupynambás 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Aparecidense (draw refunded)

60%

Tupynambás (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aparecidense at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

Tupynambás away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aparecidense attack 1.92 + Tupynambás defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.65

Tupynambás attack 1.50 + Aparecidense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aparecidense scores more

46%

level

24%

Tupynambás scores more

30%

Aparecidense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aparecidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff