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Tupi vs Nacional AC MG — Mineiro - 2 2026

Tupi
Tupi
FT
1 – 1
Nacional AC MG
Nacional AC MG
5/28/2022Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 8Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Tupi37%
×Draw29%
Nacional AC MG34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupi
1.15
Nacional AC MG
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 34 away

creates per match

Tupi
1.18
Nacional AC MG
1.03

allows per match

Tupi
1.14
Nacional AC MG
1.12

finishing

Tupi+0.00on par
Nacional AC MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupi ↓

Nacional AC MG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tupi or draw
66%
Tupi or Nacional AC MG
71%
Draw or Nacional AC MG
63%

Winning margin

Tupi wins by 2+
15%
Nacional AC MG wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tupi 1+ goals
68%
Tupi 2+ goals
32%
Tupi 3+ goals
11%
Nacional AC MG 1+ goals
66%
Nacional AC MG 2+ goals
29%
Nacional AC MG 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tupi (draw refunded)
52%
Nacional AC MG (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupi at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Nacional AC MG away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupi attack 1.18 + Nacional AC MG defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Nacional AC MG attack 1.03 + Tupi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tupi scores more
37%
level
29%
Nacional AC MG scores more
34%

Tupi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tupi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Tupi 1–1 Nacional AC MG

Tupi and Nacional AC MG drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 2 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais.