Nacional AC MG 1–0 Tupi: Result & Stats

Nacional AC MG

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tupi

I. Badio 66'

5/10/2023

Mineiro - 2 · Round 3Estádio Soares de Azevedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Nacional AC MG47%

×Draw28%

Tupi25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional AC MGExpected goals in this matchTupi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.92

Nacional AC MG

1.36

Tupi

0.92

Nacional AC MG creates 48% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 25 away

1.32

creates per match

0.80

1.03

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Nacional AC MG

1.32

Tupi

0.80

allows per match

Nacional AC MG

1.03

Tupi

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional AC MG+0.00on par

Tupi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional AC MG ↓

Tupi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nacional AC MG or draw

75%

Nacional AC MG or Tupi

72%

Draw or Tupi

53%

Winning margin

Nacional AC MG wins by 2+

22%

Tupi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nacional AC MG 1+ goals

74%

Nacional AC MG 2+ goals

39%

Nacional AC MG 3+ goals

16%

Tupi 1+ goals

60%

Tupi 2+ goals

23%

Tupi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nacional AC MG (draw refunded)

65%

Tupi (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional AC MG at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.03 · 37 matches

Tupi away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional AC MG attack 1.32 + Tupi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tupi attack 0.80 + Nacional AC MG defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nacional AC MG scores more

47%

level

28%

Tupi scores more

25%

Nacional AC MG at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nacional AC MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

I. Badio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff