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Tupi vs Itaboraí — Serie D 2018

Tupi
Tupi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Itaboraí
Itaboraí
5/11/2019Serie DSerie D · Round 2Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio (Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tupi67%
×Draw25%
Itaboraí8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupi
1.50
Itaboraí
0.34

Tupi creates 341% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tupi
0.67
Itaboraí
0.00

allows per match

Tupi
0.67
Itaboraí
2.33

finishing

Tupi+0.00on par
Itaboraí+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupi ↓

Itaboraí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tupi or draw
92%
Tupi or Itaboraí
75%
Draw or Itaboraí
33%

Winning margin

Tupi wins by 2+
36%
Itaboraí wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Tupi 1+ goals
78%
Tupi 2+ goals
44%
Tupi 3+ goals
19%
Itaboraí 1+ goals
29%
Itaboraí 2+ goals
5%
Itaboraí 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Tupi (draw refunded)
89%
Itaboraí (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupi at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Itaboraí away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupi attack 0.67 + Itaboraí defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Itaboraí attack 0.00 + Tupi defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Tupi scores more
67%
level
25%
Itaboraí scores more
8%

Tupi at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Tupi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Tupi 0–0 Itaboraí

Tupi and Itaboraí drew 0-0 in Serie D on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio (Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais).