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Itaboraí vs Tupi — Serie D 2018

Itaboraí
Itaboraí
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tupi
Tupi
6/1/2019Serie DSerie D · Round 5Estádio Municipal Alziro de Almeida (Itaboraí, Rio de Janeiro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Itaboraí67%
×Draw18%
Tupi15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itaboraí
2.33
Tupi
1.00

Itaboraí creates 133% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Itaboraí
2.00
Tupi
1.00

allows per match

Itaboraí
1.00
Tupi
2.67

finishing

Itaboraí+0.00on par
Tupi+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itaboraí ↓

Tupi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Itaboraí or draw
85%
Itaboraí or Tupi
82%
Draw or Tupi
33%

Winning margin

Itaboraí wins by 2+
44%
Tupi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Itaboraí 1+ goals
90%
Itaboraí 2+ goals
67%
Itaboraí 3+ goals
41%
Tupi 1+ goals
63%
Tupi 2+ goals
26%
Tupi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Itaboraí (draw refunded)
82%
Tupi (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itaboraí at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Tupi away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itaboraí attack 2.00 + Tupi defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Tupi attack 1.00 + Itaboraí defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Itaboraí scores more
67%
level
18%
Tupi scores more
15%

Itaboraí at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Itaboraí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Itaboraí vs Tupi

Itaboraí beat Tupi 5-1 in Serie D on June 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Alziro de Almeida (Itaboraí, Rio de Janeiro).