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Tupan vs Sao Luis — Maranhense - 2 2026

Tupan
Tupan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sao Luis
Sao Luis
9/20/2025Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Maranhense 2 - 3Estádio Elmo Serejo Farias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Tupan25%
×Draw25%
Sao Luis50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupan
1.05
Sao Luis
1.59

Sao Luis creates 51% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Tupan
0.50
Sao Luis
1.80

allows per match

Tupan
1.38
Sao Luis
1.60

finishing

Tupan+0.00on par
Sao Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupan ↓

Sao Luis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tupan or draw
50%
Tupan or Sao Luis
75%
Draw or Sao Luis
75%

Winning margin

Tupan wins by 2+
9%
Sao Luis wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Tupan 1+ goals
65%
Tupan 2+ goals
28%
Tupan 3+ goals
9%
Sao Luis 1+ goals
80%
Sao Luis 2+ goals
47%
Sao Luis 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tupan (draw refunded)
33%
Sao Luis (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupan at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Sao Luis away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupan attack 0.50 + Sao Luis defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.05

Sao Luis attack 1.80 + Tupan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tupan scores more
25%
level
25%
Sao Luis scores more
50%

Sao Luis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sao Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tupan vs Sao Luis

Tupan and Sao Luis drew 1-1 in Maranhense - 2 on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Elmo Serejo Farias in Taguatinga, Distrito Federal.