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Sao Luis vs Tupan — Maranhense - 2 2026

Sao Luis
Sao Luis
FT
3 – 0
Tupan
Tupan
11/9/2024Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · 1st Phase - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sao Luis67%
×Draw18%
Tupan15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Luis
2.38
Tupan
1.04

Sao Luis creates 129% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sao Luis
2.25
Tupan
1.25

allows per match

Sao Luis
0.83
Tupan
2.50

finishing

Sao Luis+0.00on par
Tupan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Luis ↓

Tupan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sao Luis or draw
85%
Sao Luis or Tupan
82%
Draw or Tupan
33%

Winning margin

Sao Luis wins by 2+
44%
Tupan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sao Luis 1+ goals
91%
Sao Luis 2+ goals
68%
Sao Luis 3+ goals
42%
Tupan 1+ goals
65%
Tupan 2+ goals
28%
Tupan 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sao Luis (draw refunded)
82%
Tupan (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Luis at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Tupan away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Luis attack 2.25 + Tupan defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

Tupan attack 1.25 + Sao Luis defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sao Luis scores more
67%
level
18%
Tupan scores more
15%

Sao Luis at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sao Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maranhense - 2: Sao Luis 3–0 Tupan

Sao Luis beat Tupan 3-0 in Maranhense - 2 on November 9, 2024.