Tupa 1–1 Santacruzense: Result & Stats

Tupa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Santacruzense

G. Lobato 41' (pen)

Willian 85'

6/21/2025

Paulista Série B · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Alonso de Carvalho Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tupa40%

×Draw27%

Santacruzense33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TupaExpected goals in this matchSantacruzense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.18

Tupa

1.33

Santacruzense

1.18

Tupa creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

1.37

creates per match

1.10

1.26

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Tupa

1.37

Santacruzense

1.10

allows per match

Tupa

1.26

Santacruzense

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tupa+0.00on par

Santacruzense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupa ↓

Santacruzense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tupa or draw

67%

Tupa or Santacruzense

73%

Draw or Santacruzense

60%

Winning margin

Tupa wins by 2+

18%

Santacruzense wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tupa 1+ goals

74%

Tupa 2+ goals

38%

Tupa 3+ goals

15%

Santacruzense 1+ goals

69%

Santacruzense 2+ goals

33%

Santacruzense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tupa (draw refunded)

55%

Santacruzense (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Santacruzense away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupa attack 1.37 + Santacruzense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Santacruzense attack 1.10 + Tupa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tupa scores more

40%

level

27%

Santacruzense scores more

33%

Tupa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tupa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

G. LobatoPenalty

85'

Willian

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff