Santacruzense 1–1 Tupa: Result & Stats

Santacruzense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tupa

Unknown 70'

Unknown 29'

5/18/2025

Paulista Série B · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Leônidas Camarinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Santacruzense52%

×Draw23%

Tupa26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantacruzenseExpected goals in this matchTupa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.23

Santacruzense

1.84

Tupa

1.23

Santacruzense creates 50% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 19 away

2.00

creates per match

1.47

1.00

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Santacruzense

2.00

Tupa

1.47

allows per match

Santacruzense

1.00

Tupa

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santacruzense+0.00on par

Tupa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santacruzense ↓

Tupa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Santacruzense or draw

74%

Santacruzense or Tupa

77%

Draw or Tupa

48%

Winning margin

Santacruzense wins by 2+

29%

Tupa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Santacruzense 1+ goals

84%

Santacruzense 2+ goals

55%

Santacruzense 3+ goals

28%

Tupa 1+ goals

71%

Tupa 2+ goals

35%

Tupa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Santacruzense (draw refunded)

67%

Tupa (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santacruzense at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Tupa away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santacruzense attack 2.00 + Tupa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.84

Tupa attack 1.47 + Santacruzense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Santacruzense scores more

52%

level

23%

Tupa scores more

26%

Santacruzense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Santacruzense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

70'

81'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff