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Tupa vs Olímpia — Paulista Série B 2026

Tupa
Tupa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olímpia
Olímpia
Unknown 62'
5/9/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Bento de Abreu Sampaio Vidal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tupa55%
×Draw23%
Olímpia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupa
1.85
Olímpia
1.07

Tupa creates 73% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tupa
1.37
Olímpia
0.89

allows per match

Tupa
1.26
Olímpia
2.33

finishing

Tupa+0.00on par
Olímpia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupa ↓

Olímpia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tupa or draw
78%
Tupa or Olímpia
77%
Draw or Olímpia
45%

Winning margin

Tupa wins by 2+
32%
Olímpia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tupa 1+ goals
84%
Tupa 2+ goals
55%
Tupa 3+ goals
28%
Olímpia 1+ goals
66%
Olímpia 2+ goals
29%
Olímpia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tupa (draw refunded)
72%
Olímpia (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Olímpia away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupa attack 1.37 + Olímpia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.85

Olímpia attack 0.89 + Tupa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tupa scores more
55%
level
23%
Olímpia scores more
22%

Tupa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tupa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
75'
86'
89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Tupa 1–0 Olímpia

Tupa beat Olímpia 1-0 in Paulista Série B on May 9, 2025.

Goals: ? (62').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Bento de Abreu Sampaio Vidal in Marília, São Paulo.