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Olímpia vs Tupa — Paulista Série B 2026

Olímpia
Olímpia
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Tupa
Tupa
Unknown 62'
Unknown 85', 33'
M. Lima 26'
Tonhao 21'
6/15/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Maria Teresa Breda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Olímpia27%
×Draw24%
Tupa49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpia
1.18
Tupa
1.68

Tupa creates 42% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

creates per match

Olímpia
0.67
Tupa
1.47

allows per match

Olímpia
1.89
Tupa
1.68

finishing

Olímpia+0.00on par
Tupa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpia ↓

Tupa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Olímpia or draw
51%
Olímpia or Tupa
76%
Draw or Tupa
73%

Winning margin

Olímpia wins by 2+
11%
Tupa wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Olímpia 1+ goals
69%
Olímpia 2+ goals
33%
Olímpia 3+ goals
12%
Tupa 1+ goals
81%
Tupa 2+ goals
50%
Tupa 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Olímpia (draw refunded)
35%
Tupa (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Tupa away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpia attack 0.67 + Tupa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.18

Tupa attack 1.47 + Olímpia defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Olímpia scores more
27%
level
24%
Tupa scores more
49%

Tupa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tupa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Tonhao
26'
M. Lima
33'
62'
85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Olímpia 1 – 4 Tupa

Tupa beat Olímpia 4-1 in Paulista Série B on June 15, 2025.

Goals: Tonhao (21'), M. Lima (26'), ? (33', 62', 85').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Maria Teresa Breda in Olímpia, São Paulo.