Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tupa vs Inter de Bebedouro — Paulista Série B 2026

Tupa
Tupa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Inter de Bebedouro
Inter de Bebedouro
Leonildo 90+5'
K. Bajana 83'
Carioca 56'
5/18/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Alonso de Carvalho Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tupa26%
×Draw27%
Inter de Bebedouro47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupa
0.99
Inter de Bebedouro
1.43

Inter de Bebedouro creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

creates per match

Tupa
1.37
Inter de Bebedouro
1.60

allows per match

Tupa
1.26
Inter de Bebedouro
0.60

finishing

Tupa+0.00on par
Inter de Bebedouro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 56Over: 4456%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupa ↓

Inter de Bebedouro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tupa or draw
53%
Tupa or Inter de Bebedouro
73%
Draw or Inter de Bebedouro
74%

Winning margin

Tupa wins by 2+
9%
Inter de Bebedouro wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Tupa 1+ goals
63%
Tupa 2+ goals
26%
Tupa 3+ goals
8%
Inter de Bebedouro 1+ goals
76%
Inter de Bebedouro 2+ goals
42%
Inter de Bebedouro 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tupa (draw refunded)
36%
Inter de Bebedouro (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Inter de Bebedouro away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupa attack 1.37 + Inter de Bebedouro defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.99

Inter de Bebedouro attack 1.60 + Tupa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tupa scores more
26%
level
27%
Inter de Bebedouro scores more
47%

Inter de Bebedouro at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Inter de Bebedouro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
Carioca
83'
K. Bajana
90+5'
Leonildo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Tupa 2–1 Inter de Bebedouro

Tupa beat Inter de Bebedouro 2-1 in Paulista Série B on May 18, 2024.

Goals: Carioca (56'), K. Bajana (83'), Leonildo (90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Alonso de Carvalho Braga in Tupã, São Paulo.