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Inter de Bebedouro vs Tupa — Paulista Série B 2026

Inter de Bebedouro
Inter de Bebedouro
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tupa
Tupa
M. Macola 87'
6/22/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Sócrates Stamato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Inter de Bebedouro39%
×Draw26%
Tupa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter de Bebedouro
1.39
Tupa
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 19 away

creates per match

Inter de Bebedouro
1.10
Tupa
1.47

allows per match

Inter de Bebedouro
1.10
Tupa
1.68

finishing

Inter de Bebedouro+0.00on par
Tupa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter de Bebedouro ↓

Tupa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Inter de Bebedouro or draw
65%
Inter de Bebedouro or Tupa
74%
Draw or Tupa
61%

Winning margin

Inter de Bebedouro wins by 2+
18%
Tupa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Inter de Bebedouro 1+ goals
75%
Inter de Bebedouro 2+ goals
40%
Inter de Bebedouro 3+ goals
16%
Tupa 1+ goals
72%
Tupa 2+ goals
37%
Tupa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Inter de Bebedouro (draw refunded)
53%
Tupa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter de Bebedouro at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Tupa away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter de Bebedouro attack 1.10 + Tupa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tupa attack 1.47 + Inter de Bebedouro defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Inter de Bebedouro scores more
39%
level
26%
Tupa scores more
35%

Inter de Bebedouro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Inter de Bebedouro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

87'
M. Macola

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Inter de Bebedouro 0–1 Tupa

Tupa beat Inter de Bebedouro 1-0 in Paulista Série B on June 22, 2024.

Goals: M. Macola (87').

The match was played at Estádio Sócrates Stamato in Bebedouro, São Paulo.