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Tupa vs Flamengo SP — Paulista Série B 2026

Tupa
Tupa
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Flamengo SP
Flamengo SP
Unknown 42'
Unknown 85', 58', 38', 8'
7/6/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 2Estádio Alonso de Carvalho Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tupa33%
×Draw27%
Flamengo SP40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupa
1.16
Flamengo SP
1.31

Flamengo SP creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tupa
1.37
Flamengo SP
1.37

allows per match

Tupa
1.26
Flamengo SP
0.95

finishing

Tupa+0.00on par
Flamengo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupa ↓

Flamengo SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tupa or draw
60%
Tupa or Flamengo SP
73%
Draw or Flamengo SP
67%

Winning margin

Tupa wins by 2+
13%
Flamengo SP wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tupa 1+ goals
69%
Tupa 2+ goals
32%
Tupa 3+ goals
11%
Flamengo SP 1+ goals
73%
Flamengo SP 2+ goals
38%
Flamengo SP 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tupa (draw refunded)
45%
Flamengo SP (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Flamengo SP away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupa attack 1.37 + Flamengo SP defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.16

Flamengo SP attack 1.37 + Tupa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tupa scores more
33%
level
27%
Flamengo SP scores more
40%

Flamengo SP at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Flamengo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
38'
42'
58'
85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Tupa 1–4 Flamengo SP

Flamengo SP beat Tupa 4-1 in Paulista Série B on July 6, 2024.

Goals: ? (8', 38', 42', 58', 85').

The match was played at Estádio Alonso de Carvalho Braga in Tupã, São Paulo.