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Flamengo SP vs Tupa — Paulista Série B 2026

Flamengo SP
Flamengo SP
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tupa
Tupa
Unknown 64', 44'
Unknown 30'
7/27/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Flamengo SP50%
×Draw24%
Tupa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo SP
1.71
Tupa
1.18

Flamengo SP creates 45% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Flamengo SP
1.74
Tupa
1.47

allows per match

Flamengo SP
0.89
Tupa
1.68

finishing

Flamengo SP+0.00on par
Tupa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo SP ↓

Tupa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Flamengo SP or draw
74%
Flamengo SP or Tupa
76%
Draw or Tupa
50%

Winning margin

Flamengo SP wins by 2+
27%
Tupa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Flamengo SP 1+ goals
82%
Flamengo SP 2+ goals
51%
Flamengo SP 3+ goals
24%
Tupa 1+ goals
69%
Tupa 2+ goals
33%
Tupa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Flamengo SP (draw refunded)
65%
Tupa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo SP at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Tupa away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo SP attack 1.74 + Tupa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tupa attack 1.47 + Flamengo SP defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Flamengo SP scores more
50%
level
24%
Tupa scores more
26%

Flamengo SP at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Flamengo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
44'
64'
77'
E. de Andrade Egydio de Souza

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamengo SP vs Tupa

Flamengo SP beat Tupa 2-1 in Paulista Série B on July 27, 2024.

Goals: ? (30', 44', 64').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira in Guarulhos, São Paulo.