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Tupa vs Assisense — Paulista Série B 2026

Tupa
Tupa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Assisense
Assisense
Guilherme 60'
Rafinha 72'
J. S. Fernando 37'
6/8/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Alonso de Carvalho Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tupa42%
×Draw28%
Assisense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupa
1.26
Assisense
1.02

Tupa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tupa
1.37
Assisense
0.77

allows per match

Tupa
1.26
Assisense
1.15

finishing

Tupa+0.00on par
Assisense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 60Over: 4060%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupa ↓

Assisense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tupa or draw
70%
Tupa or Assisense
72%
Draw or Assisense
58%

Winning margin

Tupa wins by 2+
19%
Assisense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tupa 1+ goals
72%
Tupa 2+ goals
36%
Tupa 3+ goals
13%
Assisense 1+ goals
64%
Assisense 2+ goals
27%
Assisense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tupa (draw refunded)
58%
Assisense (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Assisense away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupa attack 1.37 + Assisense defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Assisense attack 0.77 + Tupa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tupa scores more
42%
level
28%
Assisense scores more
30%

Tupa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tupa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
J. S. Fernando
60'
Guilherme
72'
Rafinha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Tupa 1–2 Assisense

Assisense beat Tupa 2-1 in Paulista Série B on June 8, 2025.

Goals: J. S. Fernando (37'), Guilherme (60'), Rafinha (72').

The match was played at Estádio Alonso de Carvalho Braga in Tupã, São Paulo.