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Assisense vs Tupa — Paulista Série B 2026

Assisense
Assisense
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tupa
Tupa
Joao Sacca 90'
D. Medola 69'
Dezin 45'
W. Lima 58'
Davi 52'
4/24/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Assisense42%
×Draw23%
Tupa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assisense
1.80
Tupa
1.62

Assisense creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Assisense
1.92
Tupa
1.47

allows per match

Assisense
1.77
Tupa
1.68

finishing

Assisense+0.00on par
Tupa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assisense ↓

Tupa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Assisense or draw
65%
Assisense or Tupa
77%
Draw or Tupa
58%

Winning margin

Assisense wins by 2+
22%
Tupa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Assisense 1+ goals
83%
Assisense 2+ goals
54%
Assisense 3+ goals
27%
Tupa 1+ goals
80%
Tupa 2+ goals
48%
Tupa 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Assisense (draw refunded)
55%
Tupa (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assisense at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Tupa away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assisense attack 1.92 + Tupa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.80

Tupa attack 1.47 + Assisense defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Assisense scores more
42%
level
23%
Tupa scores more
35%

Assisense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Assisense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Dezin
52'
Davi
58'
W. Lima
59'
Kawann
69'
D. Medola
90'
Joao Sacca

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Assisense 3–2 Tupa

Assisense beat Tupa 3-2 in Paulista Série B on April 24, 2026.

Goals: Dezin (45'), Davi (52'), W. Lima (58'), D. Medola (69'), Joao Sacca (90').