Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tupa vs AEA — Paulista Série B 2026

Tupa
Tupa
FT
2 – 2
AEA
AEA
4/20/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Alonso de Carvalho Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tupa35%
×Draw30%
AEA35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupa
1.04
AEA
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

creates per match

Tupa
1.37
AEA
0.80

allows per match

Tupa
1.26
AEA
0.70

finishing

Tupa+0.00on par
AEA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 66Over: 3466%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupa ↓

AEA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tupa or draw
65%
Tupa or AEA
70%
Draw or AEA
65%

Winning margin

Tupa wins by 2+
14%
AEA wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tupa 1+ goals
65%
Tupa 2+ goals
28%
Tupa 3+ goals
9%
AEA 1+ goals
64%
AEA 2+ goals
28%
AEA 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tupa (draw refunded)
50%
AEA (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

AEA away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupa attack 1.37 + AEA defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.04

AEA attack 0.80 + Tupa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Tupa scores more
35%
level
30%
AEA scores more
35%

Tupa at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Tupa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tupa vs AEA

Tupa and AEA drew 2-2 in Paulista Série B on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Alonso de Carvalho Braga in Tupã, São Paulo.