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AEA vs Tupa — Paulista Série B 2026

AEA
AEA
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tupa
Tupa
Gustavao 88', 10'
Kauan 70'
Kayque Guedes 68' (pen)
5/25/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

AEA48%
×Draw25%
Tupa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEA
1.54
Tupa
1.08

AEA creates 43% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 19 away

creates per match

AEA
1.40
Tupa
1.47

allows per match

AEA
0.70
Tupa
1.68

finishing

AEA+0.00on par
Tupa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEA ↓

Tupa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AEA or draw
73%
AEA or Tupa
75%
Draw or Tupa
52%

Winning margin

AEA wins by 2+
24%
Tupa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AEA 1+ goals
79%
AEA 2+ goals
45%
AEA 3+ goals
20%
Tupa 1+ goals
66%
Tupa 2+ goals
29%
Tupa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AEA (draw refunded)
64%
Tupa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEA at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Tupa away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEA attack 1.40 + Tupa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tupa attack 1.47 + AEA defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AEA scores more
48%
level
25%
Tupa scores more
27%

AEA at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AEA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Gustavao
68'
Kayque GuedesPenalty
70'
Kauan
88'
Gustavao

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AEA 3 – 1 Tupa

AEA beat Tupa 3-1 in Paulista Série B on May 25, 2024.

Goals: Gustavao (10', 88'), Kayque Guedes (68' pen), Kauan (70').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Adhemar de Barros in Araçatuba, São Paulo.