Tupã U20 0–4 Novorizontino U20: Result & Stats

Tupã U20

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Novorizontino U20

Unknown 90+6', 58', 45', 38'

4/26/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Alonso de Carvalho Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tupã U2012%

×Draw16%

Novorizontino U2073%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tupã U20Expected goals in this matchNovorizontino U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

2.64

Tupã U20

0.96

Novorizontino U20

2.64

Novorizontino U20 creates 175% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 25 away

1.00

creates per match

2.08

3.20

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Tupã U20

1.00

Novorizontino U20

2.08

allows per match

Tupã U20

3.20

Novorizontino U20

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tupã U20+0.00on par

Novorizontino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupã U20 ↓

Novorizontino U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–210%

0–39%

0–46%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Tupã U20 or draw

27%

Tupã U20 or Novorizontino U20

84%

Draw or Novorizontino U20

88%

Winning margin

Tupã U20 wins by 2+

4%

Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Tupã U20 1+ goals

62%

Tupã U20 2+ goals

25%

Tupã U20 3+ goals

7%

Novorizontino U20 1+ goals

93%

Novorizontino U20 2+ goals

74%

Novorizontino U20 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Tupã U20 (draw refunded)

14%

Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupã U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Novorizontino U20 away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupã U20 attack 1.00 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.08 + Tupã U20 defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Tupã U20 scores more

12%

level

16%

Novorizontino U20 scores more

73%

Novorizontino U20 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

45'

58'

90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff