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Novorizontino U20 vs Tupã U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tupã U20
Tupã U20
K. Kelvin 90'
Joao Henrick 87', 42'
K. Felipe Gomes 82'
R. Sales da Silva 72'
Jailson 59'
Enzo Rocha 34'
5/31/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Sílvio Salles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Novorizontino U2085%
×Draw10%
Tupã U205%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novorizontino U20
3.26
Tupã U20
0.71

Novorizontino U20 creates 359% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 5 away

creates per match

Novorizontino U20
2.73
Tupã U20
0.60

allows per match

Novorizontino U20
0.81
Tupã U20
3.80

finishing

Novorizontino U20+0.00on par
Tupã U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 75Under: 2575%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino U20 ↓

Tupã U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Novorizontino U20 or draw
95%
Novorizontino U20 or Tupã U20
90%
Draw or Tupã U20
15%

Winning margin

Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
67%
Tupã U20 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
96%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
83%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
61%
Tupã U20 1+ goals
51%
Tupã U20 2+ goals
16%
Tupã U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
94%
Tupã U20 (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino U20 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

Tupã U20 away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.73 + Tupã U20 defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.26

Tupã U20 attack 0.60 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Novorizontino U20 scores more
85%
level
10%
Tupã U20 scores more
5%

Novorizontino U20 at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Enzo Rocha
42'
Joao Henrick
59'
Jailson
72'
R. Sales da Silva
82'
K. Felipe Gomes
87'
Joao Henrick
90'
K. Kelvin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Novorizontino U20 7 – 0 Tupã U20

Novorizontino U20 beat Tupã U20 7-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 31, 2024.

Goals: Enzo Rocha (34'), Joao Henrick (42', 87'), Jailson (59'), R. Sales da Silva (72'), K. Felipe Gomes (82'), K. Kelvin (90').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Sílvio Salles in Catanduva, São Paulo.