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Tupã U20 vs Marília U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Tupã U20
Tupã U20
FT
1 – 4
Marília U20
Marília U20
4/12/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Alonso de Carvalho Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tupã U2016%
×Draw18%
Marília U2065%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupã U20
1.13
Marília U20
2.42

Marília U20 creates 114% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tupã U20
1.00
Marília U20
1.63

allows per match

Tupã U20
3.20
Marília U20
1.25

finishing

Tupã U20+0.00on par
Marília U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 68Under: 3268%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupã U20 ↓

Marília U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tupã U20 or draw
35%
Tupã U20 or Marília U20
82%
Draw or Marília U20
84%

Winning margin

Tupã U20 wins by 2+
6%
Marília U20 wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Tupã U20 1+ goals
68%
Tupã U20 2+ goals
31%
Tupã U20 3+ goals
11%
Marília U20 1+ goals
91%
Marília U20 2+ goals
69%
Marília U20 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Tupã U20 (draw refunded)
20%
Marília U20 (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupã U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Marília U20 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupã U20 attack 1.00 + Marília U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Marília U20 attack 1.63 + Tupã U20 defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tupã U20 scores more
16%
level
18%
Marília U20 scores more
65%

Marília U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Marília U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Tupã U20 1–4 Marília U20

Marília U20 beat Tupã U20 4-1 in Paulista - U20 on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Alonso de Carvalho Braga in Tupã, São Paulo.