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Marília U20 vs Tupã U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Marília U20
Marília U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tupã U20
Tupã U20
Unknown 68', 8'
Unknown 85', 79'
5/17/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Bento de Abreu Sampaio Vidal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Marília U2069%
×Draw16%
Tupã U2015%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marília U20
2.71
Tupã U20
1.18

Marília U20 creates 130% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Marília U20
1.63
Tupã U20
0.60

allows per match

Marília U20
1.75
Tupã U20
3.80

finishing

Marília U20+0.00on par
Tupã U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 74Under: 2674%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marília U20 ↓

Tupã U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Marília U20 or draw
85%
Marília U20 or Tupã U20
84%
Draw or Tupã U20
31%

Winning margin

Marília U20 wins by 2+
48%
Tupã U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Marília U20 1+ goals
93%
Marília U20 2+ goals
75%
Marília U20 3+ goals
50%
Tupã U20 1+ goals
69%
Tupã U20 2+ goals
33%
Tupã U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Marília U20 (draw refunded)
83%
Tupã U20 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marília U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Tupã U20 away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marília U20 attack 1.63 + Tupã U20 defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.71

Tupã U20 attack 0.60 + Marília U20 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Marília U20 scores more
69%
level
16%
Tupã U20 scores more
15%

Marília U20 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Marília U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
68'
79'
85'
90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Marília U20 2–2 Tupã U20

Marília U20 and Tupã U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 17, 2024.

Goals: ? (8', 68', 79', 85').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Bento de Abreu Sampaio Vidal in Marília, São Paulo.