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Tunisia vs Niger — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Tunisia
Tunisia
FT
1 – 0
Niger
Niger
10/13/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 4Stade Olympique de Radès (Radès)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tunisia70%
×Draw19%
Niger11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tunisia
2.06
Niger
0.66

Tunisia creates 212% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tunisia
1.45
Niger
0.67

allows per match

Tunisia
0.64
Niger
2.67

finishing

Tunisia+0.00on par
Niger+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tunisia ↓

Niger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tunisia or draw
89%
Tunisia or Niger
81%
Draw or Niger
30%

Winning margin

Tunisia wins by 2+
45%
Niger wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tunisia 1+ goals
87%
Tunisia 2+ goals
61%
Tunisia 3+ goals
34%
Niger 1+ goals
48%
Niger 2+ goals
14%
Niger 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tunisia (draw refunded)
87%
Niger (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tunisia at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Niger away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tunisia attack 1.45 + Niger defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.06

Niger attack 0.67 + Tunisia defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Tunisia scores more
70%
level
19%
Niger scores more
11%

Tunisia at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Tunisia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tunisia vs Niger

Tunisia beat Niger 1-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Radès (Radès).