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Niger vs Tunisia — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Niger
Niger
FT
1 – 2
Tunisia
Tunisia
10/16/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 5Stade Général Seyni Kountché (Niamey)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Niger28%
×Draw32%
Tunisia40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niger
0.83
Tunisia
1.04

Tunisia creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Niger
0.67
Tunisia
1.09

allows per match

Niger
1.00
Tunisia
1.00

finishing

Niger+0.00on par
Tunisia+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger ↓

Tunisia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Niger or draw
60%
Niger or Tunisia
68%
Draw or Tunisia
72%

Winning margin

Niger wins by 2+
9%
Tunisia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Niger 1+ goals
56%
Niger 2+ goals
20%
Niger 3+ goals
5%
Tunisia 1+ goals
65%
Tunisia 2+ goals
28%
Tunisia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Niger (draw refunded)
42%
Tunisia (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Tunisia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger attack 0.67 + Tunisia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Tunisia attack 1.09 + Niger defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Niger scores more
28%
level
32%
Tunisia scores more
40%

Tunisia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tunisia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Niger 1–2 Tunisia

Tunisia beat Niger 2-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on October 16, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Général Seyni Kountché (Niamey).