Tunisia 1–0 Mali: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Tunisia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mali

A. Ben Slimane 90'

6/15/2021

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Stade Olympique de Radès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tunisia50%

×Draw32%

Mali18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TunisiaExpected goals in this matchMali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.55

Tunisia

1.14

Mali

0.55

Tunisia creates 107% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

1.21

creates per match

0.47

0.63

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Tunisia

1.21

Mali

0.47

allows per match

Tunisia

0.63

Mali

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tunisia+0.00on par

Mali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tunisia ↓

Mali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Tunisia or draw

82%

Tunisia or Mali

68%

Draw or Mali

50%

Winning margin

Tunisia wins by 2+

22%

Mali wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Tunisia 1+ goals

68%

Tunisia 2+ goals

32%

Tunisia 3+ goals

11%

Mali 1+ goals

42%

Mali 2+ goals

11%

Mali 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Tunisia (draw refunded)

74%

Mali (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tunisia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.63 · 19 matches

Mali away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tunisia attack 1.21 + Mali defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Mali attack 0.47 + Tunisia defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tunisia scores more

50%

level

32%

Mali scores more

18%

Tunisia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tunisia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

31'

31'

32'

46'

60'

61'

61'

S. Koïta← Noss Traoré

61'

M. Camara← A. Dieng

66'

Aissa Laïdouni

67'

M. Kyabou← A. Haidara

70'

I. Jebali← H. Mejbri

70'

M. Dräger← W. Kechrida

73'

Siaka Bagayoko

80'

A. Ben Slimane← A. Laïdouni

81'

A. Abdi← A. Maâloul

90'

A. Ben Slimane↳ M. Dräger

Tunisia4-3-3

Mali4-3-3

9

Toure

18

▼

Dieng

4

▼

Haidara

11

Coulibaly

21

▼

Traoré

13

▼

5

3

17

2

1

40

19

▼

Rekik

3

Talbi

4

Meriah

12

▼

Maâloul

28

▼

Laïdouni

17

Skhiri

23

Sliti

11

▼

Jaziri

14

▼

Mejbri

2

▼

Kechrida

Manager: M. Kbaïer

60'▲A. Youssef←▼O. Rekik

61'▲H. Rafia←▼S. Jaziri

70'▲I. Jebali←▼H. Mejbri

70'▲M. Dräger←▼W. Kechrida

80'▲A. Ben Slimane←▼A. Laïdouni

81'▲A. Abdi←▼A. Maâloul

Tunisia substitutes

29Youssef24Rafia26Jebali20Dräger25Slimane21Abdi1Mustapha8Khaoui30Lamin16Dkhili5Haddadi

Manager: M. Magassouba

46'▲A. Traoré←▼I. Kane

61'▲S. Koïta←▼Noss Traoré

61'▲M. Camara←▼A. Dieng

67'▲M. Kyabou←▼A. Haidara

Mali substitutes

14Traoré20Koïta6Camara23Kyabou19Konaté10Coulibaly8Acharatoumane22Keita15Fofana12Diarra16Diarra

Friendlies: Tunisia 1–0 Mali

Tunisia beat Mali 1-0 in Friendlies on June 15, 2021.

Goals: A. Ben Slimane (90').

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Radès in Radès.

Tunisia vs Mali — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies: Tunisia 1–0 Mali