Tunisia 1–1 Mali: Result & Stats

Tunisia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mali

Wahbi Khazri 70'

Diadie Samassekou 60'

6/28/2019

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Suez Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tunisia37%

×Draw33%

Mali30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TunisiaExpected goals in this matchMali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.82

Tunisia

0.95

Mali

0.82

Tunisia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.45

creates per match

1.00

0.64

allows per match

0.45

creates per match

Tunisia

1.45

Mali

1.00

allows per match

Tunisia

0.64

Mali

0.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tunisia+0.00on par

Mali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tunisia ↓

Mali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Tunisia or draw

70%

Tunisia or Mali

67%

Draw or Mali

63%

Winning margin

Tunisia wins by 2+

14%

Mali wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tunisia 1+ goals

61%

Tunisia 2+ goals

25%

Tunisia 3+ goals

7%

Mali 1+ goals

56%

Mali 2+ goals

20%

Mali 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tunisia (draw refunded)

55%

Mali (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tunisia at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Mali away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tunisia attack 1.45 + Mali defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.95

Mali attack 1.00 + Tunisia defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tunisia scores more

37%

level

33%

Mali scores more

30%

Tunisia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tunisia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Diadie Samassekou

Mali · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

38'

41'

59'

60'

62'

Youssef Msakni← Anice Badri

64'

Ghailene Chaalali

69'

Diadie Samassekou

70'

Wahbi Khazri

70'

Firas Chaouat← Taha Yassine Khenissi

75'

Moussa Doumbia← Moussa Djenepo

80'

Adama Traore← Abdoulay Diaby

84'

Ayman Ben Mohamed← Naïm Sliti

86'

Adama Traoré← Amadou Haidara

Africa Cup of Nations: Tunisia 1–1 Mali

Tunisia and Mali drew 1-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on June 28, 2019.

Goals: Diadie Samassekou (60'), Wahbi Khazri (70').

The match was played at Suez Stadium in Suez.

Tunisia vs Mali — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Africa Cup of Nations: Tunisia 1–1 Mali