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Tunari vs Chindia Targoviste — Liga II 2018

Tunari
Tunari
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
11/25/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 14Stadionul Tunari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tunari26%
×Draw27%
Chindia Targoviste47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tunari
0.97
Chindia Targoviste
1.41

Chindia Targoviste creates 45% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 60 away

creates per match

Tunari
0.89
Chindia Targoviste
1.25

allows per match

Tunari
1.56
Chindia Targoviste
1.05

finishing

Tunari+0.00on par
Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tunari ↓

Chindia Targoviste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tunari or draw
53%
Tunari or Chindia Targoviste
73%
Draw or Chindia Targoviste
74%

Winning margin

Tunari wins by 2+
9%
Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Tunari 1+ goals
62%
Tunari 2+ goals
25%
Tunari 3+ goals
7%
Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
76%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
41%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tunari (draw refunded)
35%
Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tunari at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tunari attack 0.89 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.25 + Tunari defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tunari scores more
26%
level
27%
Chindia Targoviste scores more
47%

Chindia Targoviste at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tunari vs Chindia Targoviste

Chindia Targoviste beat Tunari 2-0 in Liga II on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Tunari in Tunari.